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Market analyst Viktoria Bereshchak shared in an exclusive commentary with the editorial office of Novyny.LIVE what buyers and sellers should prepare for in 2025.
The real estate market has faced significant challenges due to the full-scale war. The consequences have not yet been fully overcome, considering the rising cost of housing, decreased demand, falling real purchasing power, and so on.
What will happen to prices in the primary market
It is difficult to predict the situation in the long term, as the market reacts to geopolitical events. This includes, in particular, the newly elected US President Donald Trump and the policies of his White House. Based on objective factors independent of the international arena, one can assume that the average weighted price increase will be at a maximum of 15% per year in total.
The construction cost increased by at least 45-47% in 2023. This refers to the rising costs of materials and construction and installation works. At the same time, we have practically zero demand for real estate. In some segments, it is concentrated at up to 20%. And that, under a combination of factors, — noted the expert.
These include the good reputation of a developer who continues to build and fulfill their obligations, despite regular missile attacks, damage to energy infrastructure, etc. It also includes the product matching consumer expectations, which have begun to focus on:
- polyfunctional quarter-clusters;
- closed-type recreational complexes with a mix of infrastructure.
Buyers will face rising real estate prices in 2025, provided that the situation in the market remains relatively stable. The 15% forecast may be adjusted upwards if there is a loss of production capacity in various construction material sectors. Or in case of mobilization processes that will intensify the shortage of skilled workers.
I believe that 2025 will be decisive for developers. We will clearly see who has the potential to continue to stay in the market, develop, and be a full-fledged player, and who has begun their path to self-destruction or, in other words, to voluntarily exit the market, — stated Viktoria Bereshchak.
What to expect in the secondary market
The secondary real estate market generally depends on the human factor. If there are new internal migration shifts, both rental and purchase/sale activities will revive in the regions. Large hub cities, including Lviv and Kyiv, have more active markets. As practice showed in 2024, considering the dollar exchange rate and other factors, an increase in the price of liquid one-room apartments by 10-12% is possible, and for two- and three-room apartments, it is around 6-8% per year.
Regarding the eOselya program, it may remain a driver if there is sufficient financing. Moreover, stable financing, without revising decisions on allocating funds. It is necessary to allocate at least 17-20 billion hryvnias annually for eOselya, — added the analyst.
However, it is worth considering the purchasing power of Ukrainians. It has decreased because people are psychologically unprepared to invest large sums in square meters due to the uncertainty of events in the geopolitical arena around Ukraine. An optimistic scenario would be if it is possible to return at least 10-15% to the overall demand structure, i.e., sales.
The expert is confident that developers will not be able to find the capacity to reconfigure their business processes to avoid depending solely on buyer’s money to continue construction. It is necessary to seek investment partners interested in building residential properties. If companies do not start cooperating with international players who are eyeing the Ukrainian market, seeing its potential after the victory, then a reformatting of developers’ activities will occur in the worst sense.
Date: 30.12.2024 Source: Novyny.LIVE